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Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt:A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte-Carlo techniques reveal…

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How does corruption affect public debt?

“This paper examines the relationship between corruption and public debt in 106 countries. Results suggest that corruption leads to an increase in public debt. We also investigate if the effect of corruption on pblic debt is increased by government expenditure, the shadow economy and military expenditure. We find that the effect of corruption on public…

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